World Snow News 10: 6th September 2007

Welcome to another review of snow conditions with prospects for the next seven days from www.snow-forecast.com.

A few smaller southern resorts have already closed for the season. Tiffindell in South Africa closed on Sept 6th, and in New Zealand Hanmer Springs has also closed this week. Temple Basin has abandoned the 2007 season without even opening. In general though, even smaller and lower Australasian resorts have deep enough bases to pretty much guarantee a few more good weeks. In South America, I guess they will just close when they get bored of the sight of the white stuff. As if to remind us that the Northern winter is nearly upon us, Hintertux in Austria received 55cm of new snow on Thursday and it is still snowing heavily over the Austrian Alps.

New Zealand
=========
Last week we predicted that New Zealand would see a warm NW winds give way
to heavy snowfalls on Tuesday. I'm happy to report that is exactly what happened. Better still, in the days before the storm, our resort forecasts were for 20cm to 30cm of snow at resorts in the Canterbury High country and from the reports, it seems that this was about right too.

Predicting snow depths right is notoriously difficult because the same volume of water can translate into very different volumes of snow according to the humidity and temperature - the ratio can be anything from about 4:1 for wet snow to 30:1 for the cold and dry powder that falls in places like Utah and the wind can be a huge factor too. Getting the depths even roughly right means that you have to be right about the precipitation, temperature and humidity as well. When snow showers are forecast, we don't even try.

Cold and clear air followed chased the clouds North and this has resulted in some great conditions in Canterbury and further south where the snow fell a day or too earlier. In fact, these are probably the best conditions of the season so far.

The week ahead in New Zealand begins fine and cold. A tropical depression has once again formed around New Caledonia but it should stay east of East Cape as it dives SE. Apart from providing fresh snow at Ruapehu on Sunday (with rain on the lower slopes), and the risk of heavy rain (yet again) further north, it will have little effect at other ski fields. Cloud and patchy rain and snow may extend as far south as Canterbury resorts on Monday, but that's all. For resorts further south, staying mostly fine with just a few showers. Watch out for a strengthening NW from Wednesday that
will cover most of the South Island by Friday.

Australia
======
There have been dustings of snow at most Australian resorts over the last week. Spring conditions are widespread with snow firm first thing and becoming heavy by afternoon.

Right now, a strong high over the Tasman is directing moist easterly air over the Australian resorts. It's generally overcast, and there is drizzle on lower slopes and a few snow showers about the top. Pressure is already falling over Western Australia and we expect a depression to form in the Bight and move quickly east with an attendant weather front reaching the Snowy Mountains on Monday. Ahead of the front, freezing levels will remain about the tops and any snow will be confined to peaks but as the front moves away snow showers should penetrate down to about 1600m. High pressure returns mid-week, but will only stay for 2 or 3 days so make the most of the weather window and any fresh snow that falls from this system.

European Alps
==========
Last week, our forecast called for an Atlantic anticyclone to move onto mainland Europe, pushing any cold and snowy air over the Alps away to the east. Luckily for Austria, this has happened a bit slower than we expected and the result has been an extra day or two of snowfall on the glaciers. Air temperatures are about -4 at 3500m which means that snow is falling down to about 2500m. High pressure is already well in control in the UK, France and Switzerland and the snow should clear at last from Austria during the weekend. This presents an ideal opportunity to experience some great winter conditions in September - head east and you will not be disappointed. There is deep fresh snow in Hintertux, Dachstein and Kaprun. High pressure should
dominate the Alps over the next seven days, but watch out for another snowy northerly blast to follow. Meanwhile, if you can't get to the snow, you may be interested to know that a deepening and stationary mid-Atlantic low holds some promise to direct a small but clean long period swell towards the beaches of Western Europe next week - for details visit our sister website surf-forecast.com.

Andes
====
With ski resorts strung along half of the longest mountain chain on the planet, the Andes always presents a difficult prospect for a brief editorial. Today is typically diverse - freezing levels are at 700m in Cerro castor at the South, 4000m at Los Penitentes in the North but the relative altitude of resorts compensates for much of the difference in latitude.

In what continues to be an exceptionally good season for South America, you would be spoilt for choice right now. For example, on Wednesday 150cm of new snow was reported at Cerro Catedral in Argentina and there is the prospect of further snow through the weekend. Mild enough for rain rather than snow to fall at the resort elevation until it turns colder from Sunday. Chapelco received 60cm of fresh snow too and once again there is more snow forecast.

The weather pattern for the week ahead is especially complex as a small depression crosses the region before high pressure builds over the tip of the continent and directs cloudy easterly Atlantic at the Southern Andes for the first time this season with most snowfall expected at places like La Hoya and Las Lenas. Fairly mild temperatures right now will give way to colder air as the low passes and a rare settled period in prospect for resorts in the deep south.

The Snow-Forecast.com editorial team

World Snow News 12: 20th September 2007

Welcome to another members update of worldwide snow conditions, together
with prospects for the week ahead.

We currently have spring snow conditions across most of the resorts in the
Southern Hemisphere and the number of resorts that have closed for the
season in New Zealand has jumped significantly in the last week. Meanwhile,
the Atlantic weather charts have taken on a distinctly autumnal feel with a
succession of deep lows running through the gap between Iceland and
Scotland. As we forecast a week ago, the icy northerly plunge behind one of
these systems brought maximum temperatures of -3 degrees to the Scottish
summits on Monday, accompanied by 80km/h winds and widespread drifting
snow - it was the first blizzard of the season. There were very similar
winter conditions across Scandinavia too and the cold northerly air briefly
extended far enough South to bring further light snowfalls to the glaciers
of Austria and Switzerland.

New Zealand
=========
The Christchurch Press newspaper recently ran a very gloomy article in which
it claimed that the 2007 ski season had been exceptionally bad. With local
resorts like Olympus opening late and Temple Basin not opening at all, it is
easy to see why the Canterbury regional paper took this line. Even so,
looking across all NZ ski areas, the statistics don't support this
depressing picture and even locally Mt Hutt and Broken River have had a
fair season with a few truly great days. Although 2007 hasn't been anything
like as good as the 2006 El Nino year, you only have to go back to 2005 to
find a season that was worse. Many resorts have had an average season -
Rainbow in particular has had a good one. Last week several more resorts
closed for the season which is normal for the time of year - Mt Lyford,
Hanmer, Temple Basin, Craigieburn, Cheeseman, Porters, Olympus and Dobson
are all closed now - about 25% of resorts. There is still great skiing to be
found elsewhere. North Island resorts of Turoa and Whakapapa are confident
they will stay open until late October and as always, deep snow above the
lifts means that Ruapehu will offer superb back country days for the more
adventurous until Christmas at least.

The next few days sees pressure falling and a complex low pressure area
developing over New Zealand and the nearby Tasman. Initially, the air is
warm - freezing levels are above 2000m and it's cloudy and miserable. As the
low pressure transfers east and deepens it will draw in cool SE air in its
wake. Freezing levels will quickly fall and there should be widespread
fresh snowfalls at most resorts between Monday and Wednesday.

Australia
======
A few days ago I was trying to reconcile the snow report for Thredbo with
the latest web cam image. Whereas the report suggested top to bottom skiing
on a decent base, the camera suggested that resorts level snow was very
patchy - nothing like the 124cm reported. I mention this because the
apparent contradiction is a very common one that is not peculiar to Thredbo.
The reason is that snowmaking has boosted snow depths on the lower pistes
way below the natural levels and it is the snow depth on the piste that is
quoted in the report. As more and more resorts invest in snowmaking, this
creates a statistical headache. The problem is that snowmaking distorts the
record and spoils any historical comparisons that date from before it
existed. Be aware of this possibility if you find yourself concluding that
ski resorts are seeing much more snow than they used to - it may well be
mostly man-made and little consolation if you are an off-piste enthusiast.
Comparing upper snow depths is usually a much more reliable indicator.

Australian resorts are subject to spring conditions right now. The new snow
that fell last week didn't change much and it was soon back to mild weather
and wet heavy snow by afternoons. Right now, they have a real mixed bag of
weather in the Snowy Mountains following a front that is moving away to the
East. Freezing levels are about 2000m (near the summits) but falling. There
are rain, sleet and increasingly snow showers on the westerly breeze. Expect
a clearance in time for the weekend and reasonable skiing. If you stay high
and you may even be lucky enough to find some fresh snow from one of those
passing showers. Becoming milder on Tuesday as pressure builds and a NW wind
becomes established. The next cold front should be much more vigorous than
the recent one when it sweeps in off the Southern Ocean in about a week.
It's a long way off, but there is potential for a reasonable snowfall in
time for next weekend. A few days before it reaches the Ski Fields, that
same cold front may briefly manage a rare dusting of snow at the top of the
remote Stirling Ranges of Western Australia - don't bother taking your
skis - there is scrub almost to the summit, but if you are passing and see
snow, please post any photos of this in our online gallery.

South America
==========
Last week stayed pretty cold across most Andean resorts and that has helped
preserve the snow. With an anticyclone taking up residence over the nearby
Pacific, the week ahead begins cold and slowly warms up. The only
significant snow forecast is for resorts in the far South that are exposed
to fronts embedded the Westerly flow around the bottom of the high pressure.
Nothing too exciting, but I imagine most skiers down there have had such a
great season that they are losing interest now anyway. It's a huge area so
please refer to our detailed forecasts and reports for details.

European Alps
==========
There was more fresh snow on the Swiss and Austrian glaciers last week -
nothing like the 70cm plus falls of the week before, but very welcome just
the same. Typically 10cm in Austria and 2cm in Switzerland. High pressure
will provide a few more sunny days with light winds before cold northerly
air brings the possibility for another light fall of snow in the middle of
the week. Once again Scotland and Scandinavia should also see another cold
and wintry blast. Let's just hope this weather pattern lasts all winter and
breaks the recent pattern of high pressure over the Alps and a mild SW flow
for Northern Europe.

World Snow News 11: 13th September 2007

Welcome to the latest update of worldwide snow conditions and prospects for the week ahead.

There are just seven days to go until the equinox but it is too early for Southern Hemisphere skiers to abandon winter sports just yet. The season there is at the Northern equivalent of mid-March, and as everyone knows, spring skiing can be best of all - long sunny days, short lift-lines and great skiing at any resorts that are high enough to hold a good base. It may be officially the end of winter but the Southern Ocean takes a long time to warm up and spring down under is typically punctuated by pulses of cold air from frozen south that can bring fresh falls to relatively low altitudes. Unfortunately, Australian mountains are about 500m too low to ensure reliable skiing for very much longer - indeed two resorts have already closed. Meanwhile, across the Tasman, the high altitude big North Island resorts of Whakapapa and Turoa are usually a safe bet at this time of year and their combined spring passes represent excellent value if you plan on staying more than a few days. When Australian resorts suffer from spring conditions and fast melting snow beneath the high sun, a trip to New Zealand may very well appeal to the residents of Sydney and Melbourne. However, for European skiers, the cold summer in NW Europe offers an alternative with great snow conditions much closer at hand. Several Austrian Glacier resorts are reporting as much as 80cm of fresh snow. With conditions like this on offer even the superb Andean conditions are not all that tempting, let alone the even more distant Antipodean resorts.

Australia
=======
Several resorts had a dusting of snow last week. A front is approaching, accompanied by increasing NW winds, right now, soon gusting to gale or even storm force about the tops. The better news is that as the winds swing Westerly, temperatures will fall and there should be snow showers down to about 1500m tomorrow. Further showers and rather variable freezing levels over the next few days as the weather pattern quickly repeats means that it is a good idea to study the detailed forecasts and snow reports to make the most of conditions because they will be very mixed for a few days. Tending to settle down after that. Unfortunately, any new snow will come too late for Ben Lomond and Selwyn Snowfields which have now closed for the season.

New Zealand
==========
Not for the first time this season, the small resort of Rainbow has seen more new snow than most during the past few days, but even there only 8cm fell on Tuesday. The NW wind that we warned about last time duly closed Mt Hutt and Dobson on Thursday and has affected lifts at Turoa and Whakapapa too. A thundery weather front is presently moving up South Island and will reach north Island around lunchtime Friday. Unfortunately, the air behind it isn't especially cold and so precipitation on the mountains will tend to be rain rather than snow,especially at lower elevations - freezing levels typically not far from 2000m but the problem with aiming high enough to get the fresh snow will be the wind. Fairly moist and showery W or NW winds over the weekend should give way to more settled conditions from early next week - hopefully leading to excellent conditions on the upper slopes of Ruapehu in particular.

South America
===========
In last weeks forecast we mentioned that high pressure would develop over the southern tip of the continent and direct Atlantic easterly winds further North. Right now, that's exactly what we have and cool winds should deliver localized fresh snow to places like Chapelco that are open to the east. This unusual state of affairs will last about three more days before low pressure and prevailing westerlies return to the far South with more settled conditions elsewhere. The resorts near Santiago boast the most impressive snow depths of any ski resorts (around 4m) and this should ensure excellent spring skiing for several more weeks.

European Alps
===========
Austria is certainly the place to be right now following heavy snowfalls on most glaciers last week - over 50cm fell over wide areas. Settled conditions have followed and apart from a brief northerly on Tuesday, the week ahead looks mostly fine too. The Swiss and French summer skiing resorts will enjoy the same fair weather, but these were too far west to have benefited from much of the recent snow. As if to further remind us that winter will soon be here, Norway offers a wild-card prospect for back country skiing in the days ahead as deep and autumnal lows track nearby. On Monday and Tuesday there is every possibility that a cold northerly blast will bring the first snow of autumn across the Scottish Highlands. Even the high Lakeland fells may see a dusting!

For any surfers, prospects for the North Coast of Scotland and the North Sea Coast are really excellent for the time of year - winter swell conditions, but with summer sea temperatures.