World Snow News 3: 19th July 2007

Welcome to another www.snow-forecast.com weekly weather round up.

Australia
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Last week's forecast for Australia worked out almost exactly as planned with new snow for all resorts and a very welcome 30cm dump at Ben Lomond in Tasmania to kick-start the season there. That same system typically dumped 20cm of snow on the mainland mountains and accompanying low temperatures have resulted in widespread reports of powder - which sounds wonderful. I can't help being a bit sceptical about the idea of powder in Australia and I really need to hear it from a visiting Canadian before I believe it! Of course this is all sour grapes really because while you lot were having a great time making fresh tracks in OZ, over on this side of the Tasman we were missing out altogether and the only powder in Kiwi resorts last week came out of a snow cannon. Meanwhile the endless frost in central Otago basins notched up another 7 days - the frost must be nearly thick enough to ski on by now…

It looks like the next week will see things settling down over Australia with high pressure dominating the forecast period. A small and intense low may brush Tasmania mid-week, but at this stage it does not look like its attendant fronts will travel far north of Melbourne but there is certainly a fair chance that the forecast track will shift enough to bring another snowy spell - so watch the forecast carefully as it gets closer. Check out the dynamic map animation at http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/aus_dynamical.shtml

New Zealand
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For New Zealand, last week I had high hopes that with a cold high over the South Island and warm moist air to the North and East, some place in eastern New Zealand would get a decent fall of snow from the moist Easterly air
squeezed between and the charts suggested the top of South Island would be the favored spot. In the event, the mixing zone was further North than expected and it brought severe flooding to Hawkes Bay instead with only
light snow to places like the Kaikouras and presumably heavy snowfall to the tops of the Ruhaines and Kawekas but with no resorts there to take advantage. Only light snow spilled over the ranges as far as Turoa.

The good news is that the same system that brought snow to Australia has since crossed the Tasman and is quickly approaching New Zealand, so ironically the long-range part of last weeks forecast for NZ has proved more accurate than the wayward middle bit. The not so good news is that attendant snowfall quantities from this system look like they will be generally less than they were in Australia, especially for the Southern Lakes area where it has been cold and settled for more than 2 weeks. Places like Cardrona are very skilled at maintaining perfect piste and park conditions, but by the end of next week the off-piste in particular is going to need new snow quite badly.

Instead, the heaviest snow out of the current system will should be around Taranaki, Ruapehu, Nelson, Marlbrough and Caneterbury with the heaviest snowfalls for the upper slopes of Taranaki and higher tops of Kahurangi
today. It looks like some very cold southerly winds will dig under this low on Saturday with a risk snow to low levels right along the east coast of both Islands, clearing away North on Monday. A westerly airstream should
establish itself over most of New Zealand on Tuesday with mostly fine weather and rising freezing levels. There is just a chance that the mid-week low forecast for Tasmania will pass close enough to Southland to deliver
snow to Southern Ski fields late in the week and it may also be sufficient to send an attendant cold flick up the East Coast around the weekend. Fingers crossed.

Andes
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No matter how good it seems in Australia right now, South America is undeniably the place to be this season with 2m+ bases at several resorts. Last week saw plenty of fresh snow at resorts in Chile but in Argentina, only Chapelco benefited, with a relatively modest 7cm fall there. Most surprisingly, it is the giant and normally snow sure resort of Las-Lenas that has missed out on the big dumps so far - not that the skiing there is at all bad - it's just not the best of the bunch right now because this year the weather fronts have been partially blocked by the mountains.

From a meteorological point of view, the Andes situation is roughly equivalent to New Zealand with similar weather patterns leading to snowy winters. The main thing to look for is a blocking high pressure sitting off the
west coast. This directs a cold and snowy SW airstream around the bottom and as the high topples in from the west, a settled spell of weather makes for perfect skiing and riding conditions. No surprise that this is exactly
what is in store for the next week - cold and snowy until Wednesday, then sunny for the back half of the week. Perfect.

With all this fresh snow forecast, conditions on the high glaciers of Europe seem academic and after a very warm week last week as forecast, things are not nearly as enticing as they were earlier in summer when the weather
thought it was still winter. This week should see the remaining storms clearing and should cool down enough for reasonable early morning riding on the Austrian glaciers in particular, otherwise too slushy.

Until next week,

Rob

www.snow-forecast.com

World Snow News 1: 6th July 2007

Welcome to the first editorial of the 2007 Southern Ski Season from www.snow-forecast.com. We will try and make it a regular weekly feature for the rest of our season for our active subscribers and recent participants in our free days (congratulations to Tobias in Germany who won a ski book and 12 month membership the latest draw).

The Northern Winter of 2006/2007 was one that Europe and parts of the USA would prefer to forget because it barely happened. Christmas and the New Year in the European Alps felt more like October - the lower and even middle slopes were still green and where the was snow, crowds were horrendous. Afterwards, things improved: the westerly Atlantic air managed some decent dumps especially at higher resorts, but below 2000m, the season was brief. Low altitude resorts in Scotland and along the American Eastern seaboard endured marginal conditions for yet another season and now some face an uncertain future. Even so, it wasn't all bad news by any means because the Canadian Rockies had an incredible season - often with too much snow rather than too little: Some people blamed Global Warming for the odd winter weather, others pointed to El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation as more likely causes. We live in interesting times…

In the Southern Hemisphere, winter 2007 has started very differently to 2006, largely because El Nino conditions have faded away and there is a fair chance that there will be a switch to La Nina conditions as the winter progresses, with only a brief spell of "normal" Pacific conditions. Based on historical measures, we would expect a better than average ski season in Australia and fairly ordinary one in New Zealand, perhaps suffering a warmer spring than usual and certainly warmer than last spring when southerlies would have allowed skiing until Christmas were it not for all the construction work at Ruhapehu.

So far, things are going to plan for winter 2007, although the side effects of changing weather patterns have brought mixed fortunes. On the one hand the long drought of SE Australia has broken at last, but on the other, both Australia and New Zealand have seen some pretty wild and destructive weather with widespread floods and in Taranaki, North Island, even a swarm of destructive tornados last night as a depression crossed NZ from the Tasman Sea.

On the hills, things are looking really good in the Australian resorts with a decent base after recent dumps and a settled week in prospect with just a few showers to keep it fresh on the pistes. Conditions are improving quickly in the South Island resorts of New Zealand and it is snowing right now at many resorts from Canterbury north to Ruhapehu - all the way to East Cape in fact, as a bitterly cold SE airstreams dumps the second significant fall of the season.

This should take snow depths close to 1m at most resorts, about average for the date, and meanwhile cause problems on higher roads over the next few days, with snow to near sea level in places like Akaroa and Kaikoura. Carry chains and expect delays for road clearing this weekend, and if you do plan to ski in central NZ and are not too obsessed with making the first tracks, bear in mind there should be better weather conditions through next week. Further south around the Southern Lakes, the snow has already fallen and there is a superb clear and cold weekend in prospect.

Resorts in South America and those in the high glacier resorts of Europe have a cloudy and snowy prospect yet again and an odd combination of a mild winter followed by a cold and wet summer means that conditions in the European glaciers are probably better now than they were in January. Go figure.

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Best wishes,

The Snow-Forecast.com Team